History of the Institute of Forecasting SA

History of the Institute of Forecasting SA

1989 – 2019

The Institute of Forecasting of the Slovak Academy of Sciences in Bratislava (hereinafter referred to as the IF SAS) was established in 1989 . Its creation was preceded by the Cabinet of Forecasting at the Economic Institute of the Slovak Academy of Sciences.

The decision to establish the Institute for Forecasting of the Slovak Academy of Sciences was also influenced by the successful activity/performance of the Institute of Forecasting of the Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences in Prague. The reform team of the IF CSAS was composed of leading Czechoslovak economists such as Václav Klaus, Miloš Zeman, Waltr Komárek and Vladimír Dlouhý. The ambition of the then leadership of Slovakia and the Slovak Academy of Sciences was to run its own institute focused on multidisciplinary analyses, long-term forecasts, and the development of economic, social and environmental policies.

Immediately after the November Revolution in 1989, two employees of the IF SAS became deputy prime ministers of the Slovak Republic (J. Markuš and J. Kučerák) and ministers of the Government of the Slovak Republic (R. Filkus and I. Tirpák). Several employees of the SAS were members of the Slovak and European Parliaments (E. Bauerová).

The mission of the IF SAS was and still is basic research of the theoretical and conceptual problems of national economic policy and the creation of macroeconomic analyses and forecasts in the European and world context. The research focus of the Institute has been in the context of transformational development, accession to the EU, development of the new economy. The Institute responded to these challenges in the close connection of its research activities to the content of individual state programmes, in the context of participation in EU framework projects, as well as in the context of cooperation with foreign workplaces.

After 1989 the Institute focused on monitoring the general conditions of the transition to a market economy (the principles of the functioning of the modern market), creating and analyzing the economic reform scenario and proposing the progress of individual steps of economic reform. The IF SAS participated in the creation of the concept of institutional and socio-economic arrangement of relations between republics and federations and local self-government bodies, the drafting of the concept of agrarian policy and the principles of economic reform of Slovakia, or in the analysis of possible approaches to shaping the telecommunications market.

After 1995, the research focus of the Institute is complemented by an analysis of theoretical knowledge about the national innovation system in its structural and regional dimension, an analysis of fundamental trends in the transformation of the national innovation system in Slovakia and a descriptive analysis of industrial policy practices in the V4 countries.

In the years 1999 - 2002 , the research focus has been shift towards solving general methodological problems of forecasting, as well as economic, social, and scientific and technical forecasts. Regular analyses and forecasts of the Slovak economy were created within the areas of demographic development, macroeconomic level, cross-sectoral relations, capital market, labor market, foreign trade, environment, and others.

In the period 2003 - 2006, the research profiling of the Institute completed the shift from short-term to long-term forecasts and to the solution of more general, methodological problems of forecasting and shaping individual economic policies. Grant projects aimed at analyzing Slovakia's direction towards a knowledge-based economy, analyzing methods of long-term forecasting of the national economy in conditions of globalization, factors of sustainable growth of the economy focusing on the accession to the EU, as well as analysis of conditions of regional development were solved at the Institute.

After 2010, the Institute of Forecasting of the Slovak Academy of Sciences continued its mission in accordance with the development of the methodology of strategic forecasting. The IF SAS focuses on a smaller number of priority areas with an emphasis on an interdisciplinary approach. The key was to identify the opportunities, threats and challenges facing Slovakia's small open economy and society, to examine patterns of behavior in the conditions of globalization (behavioral studies), risk management in the field of socio-economic and environmental development, analysis of factors for the growth of Slovakia's competitiveness in conditions of sustainable development.

In 2011, the Institute of Forecasting SAS was officially approved by the Slovak Environment Agency as the National Reference Centre (NRC) for forecasting and information scenarios (FLIS- Forward Looking and Information Scenarios).

Since 2013 the IF SAS has been focusing on further strengthening disciplines in the field of forecasting with a focus on short-term forecasting of economic indicators and demographic forecasts. These activities were manifested, for example, by methodological changes in the forecasting of short-term economic indicators published in the regular Bulletin of the IF SAS, the organization of seminars on methodology and forecasting in the demographic field.

The strength of the IF SAS at present is mainly the application of science to the needs of practice and orientation to interdisciplinary research. Interdisciplinary research focuses on analyses and development strategies in the transformation process from the perspective of sustainable development, building social and economic cohesion and employment, and access to economic and environmental resources and analyzing trends in the context of social and economic development. The Institute for Forecasting SAS is a leader in the development of methodology, research and practice in the field of evaluation studies.